Trendbreakers - Shocks to the System ...

Share prices react to the 'unexpectedness' of news events, but since we cannot define the unexpectedness of a news event until afterwards, it is not a useful concept (i.e., the definition becomes circular); we have to deal with news events themselves rather than some ill-defined quality of them.

Unexpected news events which act as external 'shocks' to the share price, we have termed 'trendbreakers', which is very good name as it tells us their principal effect. The use of trendbreaker calibration objects which are created in the news scatter chart, is our attempt to define these extreme news events in terms of their position on the M-F plane (note that it is not always possible to do this); once so identified, we will have an understanding of what it is that we really have to watch out for when we make a trade on this stock; most news events are not really that important, all they do is to contribute a small random noise component to the share price dynamics, which can be easily incorporated into our analyses.

Once created, a trendbreaker calibration can give us an insight into the share price dynamics. Ideally we want the share price to be insensitive to news events, that way all news becomes an easily incorporated, small, noise source; the real world interpretation of this would be that the market 'knows' a lot about the stock, perhaps because its management take steps to release information in a timely manner — which is what they should be doing anyway. Also, we can say that almost all the 'information' about the stock is in its share price, which makes it amenable for study using our advanced analyzers.

Of course, such stocks with 'nice' behaviour in regard to news events might have very boring share price dynamics; the market will have them 'fairly priced' anyway. The other extreme is the kind of company with a lot of sharp changes in its value due to e.g., failure to meet forecasts, abrupt changes of management or involvement in legal actions. If you want to trade on such a company you need to do some further deep digging into its workings. Such companies can provide interesting trading opportunities however; you could after doing some investigating believe there will be a big move in some direction, but not know which direction — BUT there are options trading strategies which can be used to profit from this information.

The last category of company would be the kind which simply doesn't release much information to the market at all, and also has a very 'jumpy' share price — you get lots of these companies on the FTSE AIM; small, often involved in technology or mining. You should only trade such stocks if you like to gamble, i.e., risk excites you, or if, by hook or by crook, you have managed to find out something no one, or at least not many people know. But note that there are any number of dodgy characters out there operating out of boiler rooms which will have 'specially selected' you to hear about the latest 'amazing stock' which is about to 'go ballistic' — this is likely to be a pump-and-dump scam; it is as old as the hills. Newsgroups are another disseminator of noise. If you really know something, keep it to yourself, and cash in.